BRUSSELS/AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – – Next NATO boss Mark Rutte will need all the coalition-building skills he learned as Dutch prime minister to keep the alliance together Western countries in a context of war in Ukraine, fears about Moscow’s next decision and political uncertainty in Washington. .

Rutte will succeed Norway’s Jens Stoltenberg as secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Tuesday. It’s the first time in a decade that NATO’s top job has changed hands.

Much now depends on Rutte’s ability to forge consensus within the 32-member alliance. Its ability to protect nearly a billion people under its protection depends not only on military might, but also on political unity.

The challenges are numerous for Rutte: a possible return of Donald Trump, skeptical of NATO, to the presidency of the United States – the predominant power in the alliance – as well as calls from Europe’s allies to the East for more reinforcements to protect against Russia, and calls from non-member Ukraine for more military aid.

NATO officials and diplomats expect Rutte to maintain Stoltenberg’s priorities: rallying support for kyiv, pushing NATO countries to spend more on defense and maintaining U.S. engagement in European security.

Having governed for 14 years to become the Netherlands’ longest-serving prime minister, Rutte, 57, is an experienced man on the international stage.

But — while personally affable — he has at times openly criticized other governments, telling Hungary to respect LGBTQ rights or leave the European Union and questioning the rule of law in Romania and Bulgaria.

In his new position, Rutte will need the skills he developed as a coalition builder and manager who led four Dutch governments.

“The fact that he is so experienced in finding ways to move forward, compromise, persuading people, convincing people, connecting with people – I think that will prove very, very helpful ” said Kajsa Ollongren, a former Dutch defense minister who served under Rutte.

Ollongren and others describe Rutte’s leadership style as extremely driven and hands-on, which may come as a shock to a hierarchical organization like NATO.

“He will never think: Oh, well, I can leave that until tomorrow,” Ollongren told Reuters.

Ollongren said Rutte could combine civility with strong messages, such as when he contradicted Trump in a live news conference or when he shook Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hand for so long during a visit to Amsterdam that Putin was forced to see demonstrators with rainbow flags.

EASTERN APPROACH

Rutte came of age as an international politician in 2014, after Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down by a Russian missile system over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 passengers and crew. crew, including 196 Dutch citizens. He promised to hold those responsible to account.

In his new post, Rutte will be under pressure from NATO members in Eastern Europe to prove that he understands their desire for greater protection from Russia and can deliver.

“One of the tests for him will be: what is NATO’s ambition with regard to the eastern flank and in particular the strengthening of the eastern flank?” said Peter Bator, who was Slovakia’s ambassador to NATO until earlier this year.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO has doubled its troops deployed in its eastern members to around 10,000 troops, in addition to those countries’ national forces. It also says hundreds of thousands more could be deployed quickly.

But Eastern countries want more troops and weapons – particularly air defense systems, which means persuading Western countries to move more of their own assets eastward.

While NATO makes its decisions by consensus, a secretary general’s power depends on his or her ability to propose policy ideas and persuade national leaders to support them.

The work, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman, is “not only about reaching the lowest common denominator, but also about moving the alliance forward.”

“This is where the magic comes in between the role of secretary and the role of general,” said Lungescu, today at the defense think tank RUSI.

MORE DEFENSE SPENDING

NATO officials and diplomats say Rutte may need to temper his typically Dutch fixation on fiscal frugality.

At a European summit in June, Rutte clashed with other leaders when he and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz strongly opposed joint borrowing to finance defense spending.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said other leaders had “loudly reminded” Rutte that he would soon be NATO boss and should do everything to ensure governments don’t cut corners on defense.

NATO estimates that 23 of its 32 members will meet their target of spending 2% of their GDP on defense this year – with the Netherlands only now reaching the target set a decade ago.

Many NATO officials say spending will have to increase further – perhaps as much as 2.5% of GDP or more – to obtain additional troops and weapons to carry out a massive overhaul of defense plans. of the alliance.

“This is a challenge for him: to persuade member states to invest more in their own defense and much more quickly, to equip themselves with capabilities that go well beyond existing ones,” Bator said.

(Additional reporting by Anthony Deutsch in Amsterdam; editing by Gareth Jones)